What does the future hold for jobs and work in the next 30 years?

Updated on : January 21, 2022 by Philip Dean



What does the future hold for jobs and work in the next 30 years?

Predicting the future is a fun game that very few can win with any level of precision. I don't claim to be a fortune teller, but let me document the thought process I used to answer this question, and you can use it to make your own predictions. To start with, I will analyze some interesting facts.

1987

30 years ago there were no smartphones or the world wide web. There were 100 times fewer planes in the air every day. In 1987, the Dow peaked at just over $ 2,700 and plummeted to $ 1,800. Today it is close to $ 24,000.

According to worldometers.info, the planet's population was around 5 billion humans with an average age of around 24 years old and 42% of them lived in cities.

And finally, according to wikipedia, the workforce produced around $ 25 trillion per year ($ 5,000 per person / year).

And the average annual global temperature was 1/3 of what it is today according to NASA.

2017.

In 2017, according to the same sources above, we are 7.6 billion people generating 75 trillion USD / year (10,000 USD / person / year) and more than 54% of us live in cities.

We are flying around the planet much more, we are using digital technology to communicate much more, and each year more data is created than all previous years in human history combined.

2047

Barring apocalyptic scenarios like asteroids, world wars, runaway climate change or an unstoppable plague, we can probably assume that the next 30 years will continue with similar trends to the previous 30. The only exception we cannot anticipate is the sheer amount of Data created over the past decade will change the way we live and work in the years to come ...

But unless having a lot more data on hand significantly changes birth rates, human migration patterns, or economic prosperity (the latter being the most susceptible to big data-related change), we can probably safely assume ...

  1. Gross world product will see growth of 3% to 4% year over year ... tripling in 30 years to roughly $ 200-250 trillion / year.
  2. There will be almost 10 billion people on the planet, of which about 6.5 billion will live in cities.
  3. With our species generating around 20-25 thousand USD / person / year (adjusted for inflation), we are likely to see little change in work and life trends ... which means that we will have many more knowledge workers, working in ever-larger cities, communicating with many more people while doing their jobs and enjoying nearly twice the comforts and opportunities for enjoyable experiences that this demographic offers.

But what if something changes radically? What are the most likely scenarios of change in global human behavior, the world economy, and how do we work together to cultivate it?

Below are some scenarios that I can imagine (in order of my own belief in their likelihood of occurrence).

  1. Cryptocurrency booms. Let's imagine that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and similar currencies continue to grow. If these types of globally tradable currencies achieved only 1% representative share of the global economy (currently .002%), that would mean that a much larger portion of tradable wealth would be in a form that no national government has the power. to control. This would mean that many more people could more easily work for organizations outside their country of citizenship. Such a change would likely force many governments to design and ratify international laws to regulate work performed from “home”. You would see a growing class of "digital nomads", workers who travel the world, working for many companies at the same time,
  2. Global wealth and opportunities are more evenly distributed. Slightly less likely than rising world currencies, but arguably a loftier goal to strive for, the redistribution of global wealth could lead to a few different changes in the nature of work and human jobs. Over the last thirty years, this has fluctuated quite a bit by country, so there is no immediate global trend. But the Gini
    1. One form currently being considered is a universal basic income, which would mean that governments that adopted such practices would have to create more job opportunities and you may see an increase in civic employment.
    2. Another way this could occur is a significant increase in the education levels of women and people in developing countries. With a larger portion of the world's population able to actively contribute to the global economy, it would have a significant increase in the amount of work that could be done on any given day. This would mean that "visionary" business leaders like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos would have to pose increasingly lucrative challenges to inspire people to work. And companies now competing for talented people could hire those people in a matter of minutes, rather than months. This is what I'm working on right now with Andela.
  3. Mars happens. This would open up a whole new industry and we would likely see renewed interest in space and exploration not seen since landing on the Moon. Work would change, jobs would change, life and news would focus on the second home of humanity. It is difficult to predict our response to such a radical shift in focus (making the world smaller through communication tools → exploring the vastness of a new planet and a more accessible solar system). But it would certainly lead to a reexamination of how we create governments, laws, and national interests. Ideally this does not happen until we have made some progress on the above concepts (a reliable global currency and access of proportionate opportunity), otherwise,

Summary: If we can do the above three things in that order, we are likely to see more than just a continued increase in economic output, more movement to cities, and an exponentially increasing level of communication and data sharing. We are also likely to see the emergence of both a global workforce and a multi-planetary workforce. That would be something quite new and would create many jobs that we can only dream of today. The closest historical comparison would be when shipping opened the continents to exploration and trade.

I hope my stream of thoughts has inspired some ideas of my own. I'd love to continue the conversation in comments.

I anticipate many changes.

First of all, there is the millennial generation who have a very different mindset than babyboomers. They don't want to join an organization for more than 40 years. They are going to demand more freedom and autonomy and if they don't demand much, the children will definitely do it. It's the trend, in part because pensions are basically gone and the model is broken.

Second, we now have smartphones. We have the Internet, we have ways for everyone to communicate with each other. So you get things like uber, airbnb. People can find work in real time on their p

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I anticipate many changes.

First of all, there is the millennial generation who have a very different mindset than babyboomers. They don't want to join an organization for more than 40 years. They are going to demand more freedom and autonomy and if they don't demand much, the children will definitely do it. It's the trend, in part because pensions are basically gone and the model is broken.

Second, we now have smartphones. We have the Internet, we have ways for everyone to communicate with each other. So you get things like uber, airbnb. People can find work in real time on their phone. All industries that can be overcome will be. That is not to say that the traditional ways of doing things (taxis) will disappear, they will just have to step up their game to remain relevant.

Talking more about this uberification: That means if you have some experience as a window cleaner and a good reputation as a waiter and maybe you're a certified nursing assistant, you might wake up in the morning and say, "It's a beautiful day, me today. I'm going to work outside. " You can access your phone to find a job posting for window washing, have a self-drive car pick you up, work for 4 hours, take a long afternoon nap, and as you've told your app to schedule automatically. his night, he gets up and goes to the restaurant for your night shift when he tells you to. The next day you work a full day as a CNA and have the night off.

Moving along. Another great development that is coming quickly is something we've never seen before: the DAx (often called the DAC). Autonomous Distributed Organizations / Corporations.

Think bitcoin for a second here. The computer code that resides on many computers talking to each other gave rise to the ability to do something and get a token (which was worthless until people started using it as currency). These miners were not hired by bitcoin inc, they were not interviewed or certified. They just downloaded the software, plugged in the hardware, and started making money because they were providing the bitcoin network with a valuable service.

The core technology of Bitcoin is the "blockchain", which is actually nothing more than a way to cryptographically secure a distributed ledger. Do you hear what I'm listening to? It is a database that you cannot change unless you follow the rules. Simply put, you can use this as you would most other databases. You can create any web application using this technology.

Therefore, over time, people will eventually work for these blockchain applications. The barrier to entry is very low: whoever does the best work gets the reward.

Think of uber as a DAx, call it Daxer. It would not be a company, so no one would own it. What if you wanted to issue equity shares to the general public? You could without fear of FINRA compliance issues as long as you don't pay your workers in dollars. You must pay them on your own token. It cannot be removed. The only thing that could remove it is if all your users no longer want to use it. People could work for it and get paid without needing to be approved by any boss; in fact, they wouldn't have a boss except for the network itself, Daxer.

Let's talk about technology: machines appeared and people began to work with them to be more efficient, computers appeared and people began to work with them to be more efficient, the Internet arrived, the same story. Now what amazing tool comes next? AI. Learning algorithms will be the tool everyone will be working with soon.

Lastly, and let's do this quick; Automation. Very cool. Automation will make everything easier. People are right when they say that jobs will disappear, but that others will be created and that everyone will be better off if given enough time. At the same time, 100% of automation is online in factories, (with the advent of highly advanced artificial intelligence technology) manufacturing is being distributed with the advent of 3D printing. How will this play out?

Maybe everything tends to be more etsy'ed, more personalized, more steeped in art and culture. Or you can buy that cheap factory-made stuff that's mostly a one-size-fits-all solution.

In conclusion, the future of work is bright and varied, people may need to be more creative but they should have much more autonomy and control over their life. Rather than trying to fit your personal life into the periphery of your professional life, you will soon be able to build your professional life around your personal life.

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