Technological unemployment: Do you think most of our jobs will be replaced by machines and not enough new ones will appear?

Updated on : December 7, 2021 by Louie Wilkinson



Technological unemployment: Do you think most of our jobs will be replaced by machines and not enough new ones will appear?

Current trends certainly indicate that non-human workers are prepared to do much or possibly most of the work that humans currently do for a living. Automation, algorithms, robotics, and artificial intelligence are already capable of many of the tasks that we thought were uniquely human only a short time ago. These advances have not stalled. Your skills will continue to increase while your relative spending will decrease. Compared to human workers who get sick, make mistakes, take vacations, and need to sleep; Our synthetic or virtual counterparties are substantially more profitable than the p

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Current trends certainly indicate that non-human workers are prepared to do much or possibly most of the work that humans currently do for a living. Automation, algorithms, robotics, and artificial intelligence are already capable of many of the tasks that we thought were uniquely human only a short time ago. These advances have not stalled. Your skills will continue to increase while your relative spending will decrease. Compared to human workers who get sick, make mistakes, take vacations, and need to sleep; Our synthetic or virtual counterparts are substantially more profitable from an employer's perspective.

But I think you have identified the key question around technology unemployment: what will be the net effect on human employment? On this question there is much debate. Ray Kurzweil believes that new jobs will emerge that we cannot yet conceive. Likewise, Neil deGrasse Tyson believes that the innovative jobs of the future will require us to be lifelong learners. I do not mean to say that I know better than any of these brilliant gentlemen. I agree with your general thesis; yet both suffer from the same blatant neglect. Futurists at the University of Houston's Foresight graduate program learn early on that challenging one's assumptions is critical to proactively looking to the future.

New jobs will surely be created along the way. I don't dispute that. However, as long as we have the technology that is capable of doing even half of the unskilled and semi-skilled jobs that we currently do, what new jobs will be created for truly displaced people? They do unskilled jobs because, by definition, they are NOT lifelong learners. Will all retailers, accountants, and typists turn into doctors, inventors, and entrepreneurs? Some can, but many, many more will not. What we choose to do about this situation as a society, I think, will define a generation.

This is based on the idea that technological change is different this time, compared to the last 200 years. As it stands, there are two sides of the fence: those who think automation will destroy more jobs than new technology creates, and those who think it won't. 1 Expert opinions are generally divided on the job loss / gain ratio. 2

Currently, Gartner estimates that automation will replace 30% 3 of jobs by 2025, Oxford predicts that 47% 4 of jobs are at risk and 85% 5 at risk in developing countries.

One caveat to all of this is the distinction between automation and augmentation. Automation involves th

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Footnotes

1 How technology has affected wages over the past 200 years 2 Artificial intelligence, robotics and the future of jobs 3 Experts predict that robots will take over 30% of our jobs by 2025, and non-immune administrative jobs 4 http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf5 The impact of automation in developing countries puts up to 85% of the jobs

This is based on the idea that technological change is different this time, compared to the last 200 years. As it stands, there are two sides of the fence: those who think automation will destroy more jobs than new technology creates, and those who think it won't. 1 Expert opinions are generally divided on the job loss / gain ratio. 2

Currently, Gartner estimates that automation will replace 30% 3 of jobs by 2025, Oxford predicts that 47% 4 of jobs are at risk and 85% 5 at risk in developing countries.

One caveat to all of this is the distinction between automation and augmentation. Automation implies that all of the work can be done by a robot, while augmentation implies that a robot does only part of the work. McKinsey found that 45% 6 of work activities can be automated. They show that there is a scale between automation and augmentation. Therefore, the demand for labor for fully automatable occupations will be 0%, but the demand for labor for augmented jobs could fall in proportion to the automation capacity. Additionally, McKinsey has a visualization that shows that low-income occupations are disproportionately automatable. 7

References and other things

Here's a fun video outlining the CGPGrey idea. 8

Here are some books on the subject:

Humans Don't Need to Run: A Guide to Wealth and Work in the Age of Artificial Intelligence 9

Race against the machine 10

The rise of robots: technology and the threat of a jobless future 11

The glass cage: automation and us 12

The second age of machines: work, progress and prosperity in an age of brilliant technologies 13

The Future of the Professions: How Technology Will Transform the Work of Human Experts 14

The Fourth Industrial Revolution 15

Footnotes

1 How technology has affected wages over the past 200 years 2 Artificial intelligence, robotics and the future of jobs 3 Experts predict that robots will take over 30% of our jobs by 2025, and non-immune administrative jobs 4 http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf5 The impact of automation in developing countries puts at risk up to 85% of jobs 6 Four fundamental aspects of workplace automation 7 | Tableau Public 8 Humans Don't Need to Run 9 Humans Don't Need to Run: A Guide to Wealth and Work in the Age of Artificial Intelligence: Jerry Kaplan: 0884425918276: Amazon.com: Books 10 Amazon.com: Race Against The Machine:

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