How is Donald Trump doing as president?

Updated on : January 21, 2022 by Micheal Barnett



How is Donald Trump doing as president?

Now that Donald Trump takes office as the 45th president of the United States, it is worth taking a look at what the American economy would look like under the proposed policies. A list of 15 actions that could work well under the Trump presidency. The introduction and subsequent sections on immigration, taxes, and trade have been updated.

There's no denying that Trump has done a good job of getting rich - worth between $ 4.5 billion and $ 10 billion, depending on who you ask. Can it make the rest of America rich, too?

Trump was inaugurated as the 45th president of the United States on Friday, wenti

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Now that Donald Trump takes office as the 45th president of the United States, it is worth taking a look at what the American economy would look like under the proposed policies. A list of 15 actions that could work well under the Trump presidency. The introduction and subsequent sections on immigration, taxes, and trade have been updated.

There's no denying that Trump has done a good job of getting rich - worth between $ 4.5 billion and $ 10 billion, depending on who you ask. Can it make the rest of America rich, too?

Trump was inaugurated as the 45th president of the United States on Friday, becoming perhaps the most unexpected figure to enter the Oval Office. The economy will be at the top of Trump's agenda as president and will serve as the most important barometer of his performance.

In the election campaign, Trump admitted that the economy was not something he expected to address. In a January 2016 interview with "Good Morning America," he offered a grim assessment, adding that in terms of fixing it, it's a task he'd rather skip.

"We are in a bubble," he said. "And frankly, if a bubble is going to burst, I hope they burst before I become president because I don't want to inherit all these things. I'd rather it be the day before than the next day, I'll tell you."

In a subsequent April interview with the Washington Post, Trump reiterated his apocalyptic view of the economy, suggesting that we could be heading for recession. But this time, he seemed more open to the idea of ​​being in charge of finding remedies.

"I can fix it. I can fix it pretty quickly," he said.

Soon you will have the opportunity to put your money, or rather, our money where your mouth is.

Trump was the most fascinating figure of the 2016 election cycle. He initially turned his attention to immigration reform, calling for the construction of a wall between Mexico and the United States and demanding the deportation of 11 million undocumented immigrants. He has wavered on that last point, now promising to initially focus on undocumented criminal immigrants, but has stuck to the wall.

Later, he implemented other policies and positions: a major reform of the tax code; repeal and replace Obamacare; renegotiate or "break" NAFTA; prevent hedge funds from "getting away with it" on taxes; reform the Veterans Administration; and impose import duties of up to 35%. All while keeping the deficit in check, growing the economy, and leaving benefit programs like Medicare and Social Security intact.

Those who fear Trump's plans should find common cause with those who love them: "I'm not sure how much of what he actually says today will be his positions a year from now," said Michael Busler, a finance professor at the University of California. Stockton.

"Take Trump seriously, but not literally," has become a common saying. Trump's own campaign suggested he is playing "a role" in getting votes.

While Trump certainly has some great ideas, and equally lofty rhetoric to go along with them, deciphering the exact nature of his economic policies is a complex task. Not to mention, he won't get a free congressional pass, though he's still under Republican control.

Here are some ideas for what the US economy and markets would look like under President Trump if he can push his agenda through Congress.

Trump's costly immigration plan

Trump's immigration plans cost him a series of trade deals, but they could cost the United States much more.

The American Action Forum, a right-leaning policy institute based in Washington, DC, estimates that immediate and full enforcement of the current immigration law, as Trump has suggested, would cost the federal government $ 400 billion to $ 600. billion. It would cut the workforce by 11 million workers, reduce real GDP by $ 1.6 trillion, and take 20 years to complete (Trump has said it could in 18 months).

"It will hurt the US economy," said Doug Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum and senior economic policy adviser for Senator John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign. "Immigration is a huge source of economic vitality."

The effect would be felt in both supply and demand.

Several industries that rely heavily on cheap immigrant labor would be devastated, especially agriculture. "There would be a sharp drop in farm incomes and a sharp rise in food prices," said John McLaren, an economics professor at the University of Virginia with experience in international trade, economic development and political economy.

Businesses that sell to the immigrant population would also be affected, leading to lower revenues for local businesses and loss of American jobs.

"Immigrants, whether legal or illegal, always spend a portion of their earnings where they work," McLaren said. "And in many of our urban centers, this is actually an important part of the economy."

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He pointed to the case of Postville, Lowa, where in 2008 the United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raided a slaughterhouse and meatpacking plant, detaining 389 undocumented workers (and jailing 300 of them). The raid caused most of the more than 1,000 uncaught immigrants to leave the city of 2,300, devastating the local economy in the process.

He also pointed to his own research, which suggests that each immigrant creates 1.2 local jobs for local workers, most of which go to Native Americans. "Obviously, those jobs would disappear if the undocumented were eliminated," he said.

It's worth noting that Trump seems to have drifted somewhat from his mass deportation stance, outlining the priorities that would lead to the deportation of what The Washington Post Estimates would be 5 to 6.5 million immigrants. However, he has warned that "anyone who has entered the United States illegally is subject to deportation."

Trump has also discussed reducing the number of jobs held by legal immigrants, that is, increasing the current wage requirements for H-1B visas (visas that allow American employers to hire and employ foreign professionals), an element of his plan that it is often overlooked. . His thesis is that doing so would force companies to employ domestic workers instead of foreign workers. The move would benefit some, but not most.

"If I'm an American software programmer, it would probably benefit me a little bit by making it more difficult for highly trained software programmers elsewhere," McClaren said. "It's really hard to argue that the country as a whole benefits from that. It would be bad for most Americans, and it would certainly be bad for corporations."

An extreme policy against immigration could also cause collateral damage to the American image. "What is the American brand after we rounded up 11 million people and sent them packing?" said Jim Pethokoukis, a columnist and blogger for the American Enterprise Institute, a center-right think tank based in Washington, DC. "Do people still see the United States in the same way?"

Perhaps it's a good thing that the real estate mogul's immigration plans are essentially impossible to fully implement.

Tax reduction for all and deficit,

Trump's Fiscal Plan, unveiled in September, is perhaps the most detailed proposal he put forward during his campaign. It involves implementing tax cuts across the board, although some in the middle class would see their tax bills rise.

"Your tax plan is one of the most dynamic and growth-friendly tax plans out there," said Merrill Matthews, fellow scholar at the Institute for Policy Innovation, a right-leaning think tank based in Texas. "You would find a lot of new business investments and companies willing to put their money to use to start growing the economy."

Trump's tax plan compared quite well to that of his fellow Republican contenders in the presidential primary. It was not as drastic as the proposals put forward by Ted Cruz and Ben Carson, but, like most Republican tax structures, it favored the wealthy.

Perhaps the biggest distinguishing feature of Trump's proposal is its strict cap on business taxes at 15%, which could be especially attractive to the self-employed and the self-employed.

But there's a catch: Trump's fiscal plan would slash revenue, and the federal budget deficit would almost inevitably skyrocket.

The nonpartisan tax research group Tax Foundation calculated that Trump's plan in its original form would cut taxes by $ 11.98 trillion over the course of a decade. It would lead to 11% growth in GDP, 6.5% higher wages and a 29% larger capital stock, as well as 5.3 million jobs. However, it would also reduce tax revenue by $ 10.14 trillion, even when economic growth from increases in the supply of labor and capital is taken into account.

"That tax cut would produce faster economic growth and a bigger economy, as long as you don't pay attention to the fact that it would dramatically increase the budget deficit and debt," Pethokoukis said.

In August, Trump adjusted his platform, calling for a top income tax rate of 33% instead of a previous plan of 25%, as well as the total spending of the capital investment and a deduction for childcare costs. .

An updated version of the Tax Foundation analysis determined that Trump's more comprehensive tax plan would reduce federal revenue by between $ 4.4 and $ 5.9 trillion, depending on how he handles transfer businesses. The group noted that the change would reduce the revenue loss from its original plan, but would depend significantly on how wide the new thresholds are.

Trump has promised to cut spending, although he has not explicitly said how. In addition, it has said that it will maintain benefit programs such as Social Security and Medicare, two of the most expensive parts of the federal budget.

"If spending cuts did not materialize, I would see the deficit increase substantially by the time the plan was enacted," said Alan Cole, an economist with the Tax Foundation's Center for Federal Fiscal Policy.

Faced with such a huge deficit, creditors could start demanding higher interest rates on US bonds and the markets would freak out.

"I can't imagine markets reacting well to this. I can't imagine global investors looking to relocate looking at a United States that is deliberately driving off a fiscal cliff," Holtz-Eakin said. "Sending the United States into a debt spiral where it is borrowing interest on previous loans will generate a market reaction that will be far from benign and that, I believe, will ultimately overwhelm the beneficial effects."

Of course, just because Trump has not yet explained how he will cut spending does not mean that he will not. "It is not unusual for a politician to say 'I'm going to cut spending' and not give details," said Matthews.

Changing your mind about health care

Health care appears to be number one on the agenda of Trump and Republicans in Congress. The Republican Party has already taken steps to begin the process of rolling back the Affordable Care Act, and Trump has said he will fill in the blanks to repeal and replace the law signed by President Obama once his Secretary of Health and Human Services, Georgia Representative Tom Price, to be confirmed.

In his 2000 book, The America We Mereve, Trump promoted universal health care and presented an ideology on the subject that, quite frankly, seems rather un-Republican. In the electoral campaign, he promised to "take care of everyone." But his campaign health plan, launched in March, sang a different tune.

While campaigning, the Trump camp outlined a seven-point plan for health care in the United States, including repealing Obamacare, granting health insurance purchases across state lines, and granting Medicaid bloc to US citizens. states, among other things.

"This strikes me as a mixture of what is primarily Republican orthodoxy ... with a couple of outlandish proposals," said Roger Feldman, a professor of health policy and management at the University of Minnesota. One of the unique aspects of the plan: allowing consumers to re-import drugs from abroad.

At a February town hall event hosted by CNN, Trump criticized Obamacare, noting that "rates are going up 25, 35, 45, 55 percent." He stressed that he was not receiving campaign money from insurance or pharmaceutical companies "so that I can do the right thing."

"I don't think Trump's healthcare proposal is based on an economic analysis, I think it's based on channeling a populist aversion to insurance executives," Feldman said. "If he really tried to do the things he said he would do, the insurance industry would be in the crosshairs."

The possibility for consumers to buy their health insurance in other states is perhaps the health-related proposal that Trump discussed the most in the election campaign. The idea is not new, such a bill was introduced in Congress a decade ago, but it is shocking.

When asked for details about his plan in the Feb. 25 Republican debate hosted by CNN, Trump focused on the issue of state lines, repeating his proposal to ditch "the lines" around each state a handful of times. "so we can have real competition."

"You get rid of the lines, you create competition," he said. "So instead of having one insurance company that takes care of New York or Texas, you will have many. They will compete and it will be a beautiful thing."

"I think it could be a potentially significant improvement in insurance," said Feldman, who in 2011 co-authored a paper on consumer response to a national individual health insurance market. "It would do it by allowing people to buy insurance in states with fewer regulations, and that, in turn, would cause a restructuring of the health insurance industry."

Based on a pre-Obamacare baseline, Feldman and other researchers concluded that such a system would result in seven million more people being insured by opening up insurance markets to more competition.

Of course, not everyone agrees.

"It doesn't really help him much," said Matthews, noting that a policy in another state may not translate into access to the doctor's network and pre-negotiated prices that locally purchased policies typically pay. "It is not a bad idea, but it is not a panacea."

Too tough on trading?

Trump likes to talk about trade. And although he has said that he is a "free trader", he has also clarified that he does not like the agreements that the United States has made, such as NAFTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The author of The Art of the Deal is committed to negotiating better deals.

"One of the things that often gets lost is that Trump has a strong business background, he understands how trade works," said John Hudak, a research fellow for governance studies at the Washington, DC-based think tank Brookings Institution. . He has more business training than any American president we've ever had. "

But the ramifications of some of Trump's proposals may be less than ideal.

Take China, one of their main talking points. He has proposed negotiating with the country to prevent it from manipulating its currency and keeping it too low for American manufacturers and workers to compete.

"The reality is that when China devalues ​​its currency, the goods they produce become cheaper, and as a result, even if we lose some manufacturing jobs, the rest of the population can buy things much cheaper than they would if the goods were sold. they did in the US, "Busler said. "The jobs I would bring back are yesterday's jobs."

In November, Trump unveiled his comprehensive plan for US-China trade reform, pledging to immediately declare him a "currency manipulator," force him to abide by intellectual property laws, and end his " illegal export subsidies and lax labor and environmental standards. " "Among other measures, to help American manufacturers and workers compete."

He has continued his aggressive rhetoric since the election, and the figures who will serve as the top business advisers in his administration, Peter Navarro, Robert Lighthizer and Wilbur Ross, also point to a tough stance on China.

Trump has also pointed to the imposition of tariffs on imported products, for example, suggesting a 35% tax on automakers that make cars in Mexico. Such a move could bring jobs to the United States, but it may not. Instead, it could mean that people pay more for what they buy.

"If you put a 35% tax on products, manufacturing is still not going back to the United States, and all that will mean is that American consumers will have to pay 35% more for products that are made outside the country," he said. Busler.

"American consumers would end up paying more for things, and that will hurt the economy if tariffs are applied to those other things," said Matthews.

The Trump effect

Trump's brand has contributed enormously to his net worth - he says more than $ 3 billion. But how will that triumph translate into the White House? Maybe not well, especially if you keep up with your Twitter habits.

"That spontaneous, brusque, tell-it-it-yourself approach that Donald Trump has can be great for headlines and a packed stadium for fans, but what careless remarks like that of a president make is causing dramatic fluctuations in the world economy. , in the stock markets of the United States and in the world, "said Hudak. "Think of the market reaction to the Federal Reserve chairman's choice of two or three words."

The words chosen by US officials can have serious economic repercussions, and the country, and the world, have equally high expectations for their trade and diplomatic capabilities. The blunt way of speaking that has made Trump so popular with Republican voters could be damaging once he's in the Oval Office.

"His kind of rhetoric would actually generate deep economic instability," Hudak said.

You have already demonstrated the ability to shake up the markets with a tweet.

But Trump is a smart guy and he may be able to adapt. Matthews pointed to the Clinton administration, which took a few months to settle.

"You wonder if the Trump administration will remain the same until they have things under control, or have him under control," he said.

And some say Trump's style bodes well for the future of America and its economy.

"I think Donald Trump is good for the Republican Party and I think he's good for the country," Busler said. "Donald Trump is not afraid to face the public and speak out, even if he is politically unpopular."

As the leader of his national cult; he's doing quite well. Your propaganda machine keeps twisting everything to make it look your best, ignoring / minimizing / debunking anything bad that happens to you. His base is as dedicated to him as ever because they refuse to believe anything that might make them think less of him.

In today's reality; his presidency is one of the greatest wrecks in US history, he only stayed afloat because he had been navigating the successes of the Obama presidency. The elements of the Obama administration that were unsuccessful are also the big points of em

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As the leader of his national cult; he's doing quite well. Your propaganda machine keeps twisting everything to make it look your best, ignoring / minimizing / debunking anything bad that happens to you. His base is as dedicated to him as ever because they refuse to believe anything that might make them think less of him.

In today's reality; his presidency is one of the biggest wrecks in US history, he only stayed afloat because he had been navigating the successes of the Obama presidency. The elements of the Obama administration that were unsuccessful also turn out to be the major points of embarrassment for his administration.

On the foreign policy side:

  • North Korea has increased the development of its nuclear program and gained months of US inaction through a false display of goodwill.
  • Russia has managed to embarrass the Trump presidency on all fronts.
  • ISIS has been rebuffed due to efforts started under Obama, but could actually enjoy a resurgence due to Trump's political decisions.
  • America's allies have less confidence in America's power and willingness to stand by their side.

On the domestic side:

  • Trump has seen the highest turnover rate for members of the US presidential cabinet.
  • Trump may want to reap the glory of nominating two Supreme Court justices, but both are only in their seats due to the successful politicking of b McConnel / b.
  • Trump wants to get the credit for a strong economy, but it is actually growing at a slower rate than under Obama, and he is personally responsible for the most recent market recessions.
  • The Trump administration currently has the record for the most corruption, influence peddling, and insider trading.
  • No real legislation has been passed beyond the unpopular tax cut. 100% of the things achieved by the Trump administration is through Executive Orders, which have no permanence and can be undone.
  • Correction: Real legislation has been passed, but against Trump's wish. For example, sanctions against Russia.

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